Costs rise, industry operating rates decline further, aluminum fluoride prices unlikely to see upward trend in short term [SMM Aluminum Fluoride Weekly Review]

SMM News on July 17:

This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises have focused on fulfilling orders, with aluminum fluoride prices remaining stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices have closed at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt, and SMM cryolite prices are quoted at 7,500-9,500 yuan/mt.

From the perspective of raw materials, the fluorite market has transitioned smoothly this week. Currently, the operating rate of mines in the north is moderate, and combined with the supplement of imported sources, the market supply side is relatively abundant. On the demand side, the price of hydrofluoric acid continues to decline, and enterprises have extremely low enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced fluorite. Most enterprises only maintain just-in-time restocking, and some small and medium-sized hydrofluoric acid plants have even suspended fluorite procurement. The continuous weakness on the demand side has led to a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and fluorite prices lack upward momentum. As of now, the average delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder is 3,142 yuan/mt, and prices have remained relatively stable this week. Aluminum hydroxide prices, supported by the increase in alumina prices, have continued to rise this week. SMM recorded an average ex-factory price of 2,069 yuan/mt, up 0.83% MoM. The sulphuric acid market is currently in a state of high-level narrow fluctuations in the short term due to the influence of high costs and structural adjustments in demand. Overall, the aluminum fluoride raw material market is stable with an upward trend, and enterprises are facing increased pressure on the cost side.​

The aluminum fluoride market currently exhibits a sluggish trend with weak supply and demand. On the supply side, due to compressed profit margins and high production costs, enterprises have low willingness to operate, and the capacity utilization rate has been lingering at a low level for a long time. Most enterprises choose to operate with production cuts, and even some individual enterprises have halted production. On the demand side, despite the moderate performance of the operating rate in the downstream aluminum industry, buyers are cautious and only maintain just-in-time procurement, without large-scale purchasing behavior. Overall, the current supply and demand sides both provide relatively weak support for aluminum fluoride prices.

Brief Comment: Recently, the aluminum fluoride raw material market has shown stability with some increases, and the overall support from the cost side has risen. However, aluminum fluoride prices have not shown an upward trend, and enterprises are facing increased production pressure. Their willingness to operate has further decreased, leading to a further contraction on the supply side. There is no significant increase on the demand side. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of the aluminum fluoride market are unable to provide strong support for its prices. The market lacks vitality, and prices lack upward momentum. It is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will remain stable in the short term.